🧐 What’s a Zestimate, Really?
We’ve all done it. You hop on Zillow, type in your address, and either feel like you struck gold… or get that sinking feeling your home’s value just dropped $50K overnight.
But what is a Zestimate really?
Zillow defines a Zestimate as their “estimated market value” — a number calculated using a proprietary algorithm that factors in:
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Public property records
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Tax assessments
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Past listing data
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Comparable home sales
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General market trends
On paper, the Zestimate seems like a helpful tool. Zillow even reports a median error rate of 2.4% for listed homes and 7.5% for off-market homes nationally.
But here’s the catch: Kitsap County isn’t exactly “average.”
⚠️ 5 Reasons Zestimates Miss the Mark in Kitsap County
1. Kitsap Is Too Unique for an Algorithm
Within a single zip code in Kitsap, you can find:
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Craftsman bungalows from the 1920s
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Modern new builds with SmartHome tech
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Cabins tucked into the woods
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Waterfront estates with private docks
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Homes with acreage, shops, and livestock infrastructure
🧠 Zillow’s AI doesn’t understand the value of:
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A panoramic view of the Olympics
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That 36x40 shop with electricity
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The privacy offered by five wooded acres
Zestimates are most accurate in cookie-cutter neighborhoods — not rural or eclectic markets like ours.
2. Public Records Are Often Incomplete or Outdated
Zillow pulls from tax records and MLS history. If you’ve upgraded your home — say, added a bathroom, remodeled your kitchen, or finished a basement — and it wasn’t officially permitted or updated in the public record, the Zestimate won’t reflect it.
✅ A few things Zestimates often miss:
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New roofs or HVAC systems
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Renovated interiors
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Additions (like ADUs, detached garages)
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High-end materials or finishes
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Outdoor features like decks, fencing, or landscaping
And in Kitsap, where many upgrades are done by the homeowner (not large developers), this makes a big difference.
3. Zestimates Can’t See What a Buyer Sees
Real estate is emotional. Algorithms are not.
Zillow can’t account for:
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The light streaming through west-facing windows
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The sound of a babbling creek behind your house
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A floor plan that just feels right
Zillow also can’t:
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Smell pet odors
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Hear highway noise
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See mold or peeling paint
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Detect a full-gut renovation
In other words, it doesn’t know whether your home is turn-key or a fixer.
4. Neighborhood Comps Don’t Always Apply
Zillow calculates Zestimates by comparing recent sales in your area. But Kitsap neighborhoods vary dramatically block by block — especially in places like Suquamish, Seabeck, or Port Orchard.
A $750K home with a view and privacy might be compared to a $590K home built by the same builder but with no upgrades, backing to a road.
📉 Zillow doesn’t adjust like a human can.
5. Off-Market? Expect Even More Inaccuracy
If your home hasn’t been listed recently or doesn’t have a robust online history, Zillow has even less data to work with. That means it’s relying solely on public records — which, as we’ve covered, may be missing key details.
🧾 Zillow itself admits off-market homes have a median error rate of 7.5%, and some estimates swing 20% or more in either direction.
🧪 Real Kitsap Examples: Where Zestimates Got It Wrong
(Names/addresses changed for privacy. All sales occurred within the last 18 months.)
Example 1: Remodeled Poulsbo Rambler
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Zestimate: $698,000
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Sold Price: $785,000
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Why: Custom upgrades, new roof, walkability to schools — none reflected in public data.
Example 2: Suquamish Water View Home
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Zestimate: $910,000
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Sold Price: $815,000
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Why: Steep driveway, no garage, and road noise — all hidden from the Zestimate’s math.
Example 3: Port Orchard Acreage
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Zestimate: $435,000
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Sold Price: $580,000
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Why: Detached 2-bay shop with plumbing + ADU potential. Not visible in county records.
If those sellers had priced off their Zestimates, they could have lost tens of thousands — or turned off qualified buyers with a number that didn’t match the home’s true value.
🔑 The Risk of Relying on a Zestimate
If You Price Too Low:
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You leave money on the table
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You attract bargain-hunters
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You may underfund your next home
If You Price Too High:
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You scare off serious buyers
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You sit on the market and grow stale
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You face painful price drops and lost leverage
🛠️ What Should Kitsap Sellers Use Instead?
✅ A Local CMA (Comparative Market Analysis)
This is NOT an automated tool. It’s a hand-crafted, expert review of your home’s market value based on:
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Recent comparable sales
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Adjustments for upgrades, views, and land
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Market trends, demand, and timing
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Buyer psychology
📌 A CMA is local, human, and current. And I offer them for free.
✅ An In-Person Walkthrough
Zillow can’t see the story your home tells. But I can — and I can translate that story into a pricing strategy that gets you results.
✅ A Net Sheet to Show What You’ll Walk Away With
Home value is just part of the equation. What really matters is:
What will you keep after closing?
I’ll calculate:
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Seller costs
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Commissions
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Taxes
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Remaining mortgage
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Estimated proceeds
This way, you’ll know what you can afford next — before you list.
📉 When Zestimates Are Useful (But Not Gospel)
Zestimates are helpful for:
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Spotting general trends in your area
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Looking at neighborhood activity
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Comparing price ranges between zip codes
But NOT for:
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Pricing your actual home
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Calculating seller proceeds
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Making serious real estate decisions
🏡 Curious About Your True Home Value?
You deserve more than an algorithm. You deserve:
✅ A full valuation with comps
✅ Walkthrough guidance on prepping your home
✅ A custom plan to maximize what you net from the sale
📬 Request a free CMA at homewithgrimes.com/home-value
📱 Or DM me on Instagram @centralvalleyhomestead
I’m here to make sure your home’s story — and value — is seen and understood by the buyers who will love it most.
🧭 Final Thought: Sell with Strategy, Not Software
Zillow has never walked through your home. It doesn’t know about your garden, your sunroom, or your peaceful view. And it certainly won’t negotiate for you.
I will.
Let’s price your Kitsap home with strategy, intention, and heart — not just code.
📍 Serving Poulsbo, Bainbridge Island, Kingston, Silverdale, Port Orchard & beyond.
📝 Schedule your seller consult today. 360-860-1031
